In 2013, when a stellar cast of opposition figures across the political spectrum, unveiled the All Progressives Congress (APC) as their platform to break the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) 16-year grip on power, then Senior Special Assistant to President Goodluck Jonathan on Public Affairs, Doyin Okupe, reportedly invited people to ‘call me a bastard’ if the party survived one year.
Two years later, after his principal was dethroned at the ballot box, many Nigerians obliged him with name-calling. In April of 2015, he posted a clarification on Facebook. What he said was, ‘I will change my name.’ Never mind. The import of his words was contemptuous dismissal of a band of politicians he felt didn’t stand a chance against the PDP behemoth.
Ever since former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and his collaborators announced the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the vehicle they would use to challenge President Bola Tinubu in 2027, their action has been greeted with feverish political chatter, much of it pessimistic.
A couple of days ago, Special Adviser to the President on Public Communications, Daniel Bwala, predicted that the group would scatter in six months. He’s not the only one to take such a position. Many independent analysts have equally been sceptical about this patchwork of strange bedfellows.
While there is a surfeit of reasons not to take Atiku and his co-travellers seriously, it would be unwise for the ruling party, or even the main opposition PDP, whom they seek to supplant, to do so.
First, let it be said that elections in Nigeria are not necessarily determined by reason, an abundance of good works, or ideological clarity. Rather, many contests have been resolved by ethnicity, religion, emotion, personality, and pecuniary factors.
All of these factors were in strong play in 2023, and many would still be there in two years. Who can forget the impact of the Muslim-Muslim or same faith ticket across large swathes of the South and Christian-dominated areas of the North? Who can forget the millions of votes that were garnered on account of ethnic or regional solidarity?
But the greatest reason why ADC – a me-too project that aims to reprise the APC experiment of 2015 – should be monitored by its rivals is the desperation factor. The opposition wilderness isn’t a place the typical Nigerian politician who has ever tasted power wants to be. And I use the word desperate more in an adjectival sense than pejoratively.
Take ex-VP Atiku, for instance. There is a sense that this could be his last shot at the presidency, given that he would be 80 in two years. Many expect him to run again, defying strident calls for the presidency to remain in the South based on zoning.
But wouldn’t it be expecting too much to think he would now accept power rotation, when his rejection of the principle in 2023 led to his defeat at the polls? In all his comments after defeat, not once did he attribute his loss to a disastrous performance down South. Instead, he chose to blame the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for rigging and collusion with the APC for his humiliation.
He may have had an awakening, realising that Southern sentiments, which back a regional hold on the presidency till 2031, are still as strong as ever. In that event, he could choose not to run and back a candidate from the same region as Tinubu just to spite him.
The smart money, however, believes the serial contestant would make the same old noises about competence, his constitutional right to aspire, and the democratic imperative of open primaries – and by so doing, torpedo this latest contraption. Indeed, some believe it’s his creation for one final push for the presidency.
It’s not for nothing that the framers of our constitution provided for two terms of four years. It could be that they understood that not much can be achieved in the initial period when incumbents are busy paying political IOUs and are too wary to take adventurous steps.
Whether they are governors or presidents, many who have held office since 1999 were careful not to alienate those they needed to secure a second tenure. That’s why the pledges by former Labour Party candidate Peter Obi and ex-Transport Minister Rotimi Amaechi to serve just one term have been met with mockery.
Their offer isn’t because both possess magic wands. It isn’t something driven by altruism but by a desperate realisation that the window of opportunity is closing. If they don’t get the ticket this time, in four years it returns to the North for another eight years. That is to say, power won’t rotate down South again until 2039, by which time Obi would be 78, Amaechi 74, and irrelevant in most political calculations.
What is looming is the retirement of a generation of politicians who have been active for the last four decades. For them, the fear of irrelevance is a powerful motivational factor. It’s akin to what drives a cornered animal to fight for survival.
While the desire for relevance may be pushing many to ADC, their flight is also fueled by the assumption that PDP is done for. But anyone who understands the power of incumbency in determining electoral outcomes in these parts knows that people may be writing premature obituaries.